The Art of No Deal

Everybody’s got an opinion right now on Ukraine, and I’m not claiming to have any particular expertise beyond being an American who follows the news.

But I do know quite a bit about dealmaking, and a few points occur to me:

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• Tr*mp (sorry for the affectation but I refuse to contribute any additional online value to his name) promised a deal “on Day 1”. We are, of course, well past that, and while everyone realized that was his typical hyperbole, every day that goes by without “his” deal dents his image as some type of dealmaking svengali a bit more.
• Anyone who has followed his businesses over the years realizes that image is almost entirely false. He’s the definition of being born on third base.
• Any “deal” between Tr*mp and Putin that doesn’t include Ukraine is meaningless if Ukraine refuses to participate. Ignore that noise.
• This past week’s effort to pressure Zelenskyy into a bad deal - and bringing in the press into the room (including the plant with the “suit” question) to add to that pressure blew up spectacularly.
• Tr*mp’s NPD was on full display. Many voters (obviously) forgot about that these past 4 years, but they got their reminder of why the guy is psychologically unfit to sit in the Oval Office. But here we are.
• While this is upsetting to everyone who witnessed it - note who is most upset. That tells you who needs the deal the most (see first point).
• Nobody is talking about Putin who - wisely (I will give him that) - is keeping his mouth shut and letting his proxies do the talking. But he knows he needs a “deal” too - yes Russia is bigger and can win a war of attrition, but he’s running low on weapons and cannon fodder and every day that goes by, the likelihood of the Russian people rising up increases a bit more as well. Anyone heard from the (former) oligarchs lately? Wonder what they’re up to - I suspect most of them aren’t happy at all about the state of affairs. There are other Prighozins out there, some of them likely getting funded as we speak.
• Zelenskyy made a massive bet by saying No - that his country would continue to be willing to fight on, and continue to support him. So far that seems to be the case. What will really determine who “wins” is whose people are most willing to continue to support the war effort, and I don’t see the Ukrainians being willing to give in at this point.
• The onus is now on Europe who have a massive opportunity to step up and provide the support the US is highly likely to pull. Will they? I believe they will - in fits and starts - but it’s certainly in their interests to do so. An even partially unified EU + UK has the ability to drive a massively weakened Russian army all the way back to Moscow - with or without US support.
• That’s also an opportunity for the Europeans to renegotiate a better deal than the US offered - for mineral rights and for cheap energy. If they’re really skillful - and don’t attempt the type of hamhanded pressure tactics that just failed the US - they could get mineral rights AND cheap energy. I suspect this isn’t lost on Macron, Merz, Starmer, et al.

Yes we may still wind up with WW III. But Russia would be fighting it (mostly) alone - and they won’t win. Facing that scenario, Putin needs a “deal” more than anyone - and he knows it.

Wherever this ultimately winds up, the admirable bravery of the Ukrainian people and Zelenskyy will be treated kindly by history.

Slava Ukraini.

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